Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
