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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still